Grain output growth is projected to outpace the growth of consumer demand over the coming decade, a report said on Thursday.
The size of China's grain-growing areas and the output per hectare is set to increase by an annual rate of 0.3 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, according to the China Agricultural Outlook 2023-32, a report compiled by the Market Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
Released during the 2023 China Agricultural Outlook Conference held by the Agricultural Information Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, the report said by 2032, grain output per hectare is expected to reach 6.34 metric tons, and total output will exceed 767 million tons.
Increased productivity will be the major contributor to the higher food yield, it said.
In comparison, the country's food demand will rise 0.6 percent annually due to a structural upgrade of consumption behavior and other factors, and reach a total 867 million tons in a decade, the report said.
"The tight but balanced supply of food will become a long-term phenomenon," it said.
The report forecast that China's annual rice yield will stabilize at 210 million tons and be more competitive in the global market.
Wheat output will rise 0.5 percent annually and hit 143.9 million tons by 2032, higher than the demand of 141.3 million tons. China will import 4.3 percent less wheat every year over the next decade, and the imported wheat will decrease to 6.02 million tons by 2032, the report said.
With an expected annual output of 328.69 million tons in a decade, corn's self-sufficiency rate will reach 96.9 percent by 2032, and imports are expected to decline to 6.85 million tons a year, it said.
The self-sufficiency rate for soybeans and other oil crops will also see a notable increase.
The report said that by 2032, the growing area for soybeans will reach 13.39 million hectares, a 40.7 percent increase from the 2020-22 period. Output per hectare will increase 3.4 percent annually, while the gross yield will grow 7 percent annually, reaching 36.75 million tons.
The output of other oil crops will reach 46.68 million tons in 2032, a 29 percent increase from current figures.
Also by that year, China will be producing 99.94 million tons of meat, compared with an expected consumer demand of 104.85 million tons. The nation will still be importing 6.01 million tons of meat per year by then, almost 20 percent lower than during the 2020-22 period.
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