Editor's Note: The eyes of the world are turning to China. In this ongoing series, we tell stories about how Chinese approaches promote understanding, solve problems and improve the lives of people around the globe.
Highlights from the interview
- Chinese population has reached its peak
- Five years later, India may replace China as the country with the largest population in the world, but China will remain a close second place
- Chinese population will still stand at around 1.3 billion by 2050, which is a very large size. China will not break down over a declining population.
The Chinese mainland saw a low number of newborns last year — 10.62 million, with a birthrate of 7.52 thousandths — the National Bureau of Statistics released the data on Monday. Deaths numbered 10.14 million, or 7.18 thousandths.
The Chinese mainland's total population reached about 1.41 billion at the end of 2021, an increase of 480,000 over 2020. The number of males reached about 723 million, while females numbered 689 million. The number of working age population between 16 and 59 reached about 882 million, 62.5 percent of total population.
Proportion of elderly population older than 60 stood at 18.9 percent, among which, those older than 65 occupied 14.2 percent, it said. The proportion of urban population reached about 64.72 percent, up 0.83 percentage points.
China Daily interviewed Yuan Xin, professor of demography at the Population and Development Research Institute at the School of Economics of Nankai University in Tianjin. He shared his views on the latest population data.
Here are some excerpts from the interview:
Q: Can you comment on the latest birth data in the Chinese mainland?
Yuan: The number of newborns last year — 10.62 million — is the lowest since the People's Republic of China was established. There were 12.02 million births in 2020. When deaths are stable at around 10 million per year and births continue to drop, it suggests that China is entering a zero population growth period.
After staying at zero-growth for a few years, it will go into a stable, normalized negative growth. In other words, the Chinese population has reached its peak.
Q: What do you think led to the decrease in newborns?
Yuan: With the start of reform and opening-up, the Chinese economy took off and achieved multiple miracles. With the rapid development of society, people's quality of life significantly improved — from getting adequate food and clothing to building a moderately prosperous society in all respects.
With the increases in income, education and employment, especially among women, the birthrate naturally moved downward. It conforms to the law of development in every country in the world.
Some blame the family planning policy, but policies are outer factors that only promote the decrease, a globally recognized trend in population. They are never decisive. Without family planning, other countries are also seeing a shrinking population.
When there's a longer period of education in China, marriage is postponed along with childbirth. And when employment of females improves, fewer women stay at home, and this also shrinks the space for childbirth. The rise of feminine consciousness feeds the trend.
With economic growth, the cost of living and — and cost of raising children — are increasing. This brings more pressure on families. Moreover, families have weaker demand for a certain number of children and stronger demand for quality. They tend to centralize their limited resources to cultivate brilliant children.
Q: What are the most serious challenges for the Chinese population?
Yuan: The willingness to have children is weak. The fertility base is contracting. Reproductive behavior is negative.
For example, the number of women of childbearing age from 15 to 49 is about 330 million and is expected to drop to 200 to 240 million by 2050. The average age for first marriage is 26, and first childbirth is about 28. Mothers of second or third children are much older, which increases risks in reproduction.
Longevity and a low fertility rate lead to an aging population. With the rise of elderly people and the decline of the labor force, the structure of the population will change. This will pose challenges in social development.
Q: What impact will the shrinking population have on Chinese social and economic development?
Yuan: We don't need to be overly pessimistic on this issue. Population is important, but it doesn't determine the rise or fall of a country. China will not break down over a declining population.
The impact will only manifest two decades later or more, because babies born today will grow into a labor force after 20 years. In the short and medium time frame, we will continue to enjoy the "demographic dividend" brought by earlier generations.
Though it's turning toward negative growth, the Chinese population will still stand at around 1.3 billion by 2050, which is a very large size. Five years later, India may replace China as the country with the largest population in the world, but China will remain a close second place. For a long time, the pressure of population on the economy and society will not change. The tension between the large population and limited resources will remain strong.
Even though the number of people of working age will decline, it will still stand at about 720 million by the middle of this century, which is much larger than developed countries. Employment pressure will still be strong, as China goes into a more technological, digital and intelligent industrial era. Artificial intelligence and robots will replace a lot of jobs. And the demand for human labor will focus on quality instead of number.
But we should also see that long-term low fertility is slow suicide for humans and may threaten national security. It would be horrible if the Chinese population dropped to 40 million after 300 years.
Q: How have China's population policies developed?
Yuan: China has been tightening its population growth since the 1970s — encouraging late marriage and late childbirth. In 1982, the family planning policy became a basic State policy, to allow couples in urban areas to only have one child. The aim was to control the population size and improve population quality. Rural residents could have a second child if the first was a female. People from ethnic groups enjoy a looser policy.
After 2010, related policies have loosened. Since December 2013, if the wife or husband is the only child in his or her family, they can have a second child. In October 2015, the two-child policy was adopted to allow a couple to have at most two children, to confront the aging population. Since June 2021, a couple can have three children.
But as I said, the key elements affecting population are the inner factors, which are complicated. The loosened policies may inspire some couples to have more children, but the downward trend will not change.
Over several decades, many countries have adopted preferential policies, such as subsidies, to encourage childbirth, but none have made a big success.
Q: What steps can be taken to confront the challenges of population?
Yuan: Childbirth is not simply a matter of money. The most serious concern for many women is that they may sacrifice their career for this. With the fierce competition in the workplace, it is hard to balance the role of employee and mother.
Many young people complain about the high cost of childbirth. It is not simply equal to economic cost but also the indirect cost in occupational development and personal life.
We need to ask young people in what condition they are willing to have a child, and what public services they want. As about 50 to 70 percent of children are cared for by their grandparents, public nurseries should be a good helper. The contribution of elderly babysitters should be recognized both spiritually and economically.
Policies should take people's needs and worries into consideration. Many cities have lengthened maternity leave to encourage reproduction. However, the longer the leave, the harder it is for a mother to return to the workplace. If a wife loses her job, how does a family raise children? Companies will also have more pressure to pay for workers that cannot work for a long time. As a result, it becomes more difficult for women to find a job. It would be great if preferential tax rates could be given to decrease the costs of employers.
More supporting policies that meet youngsters' demands and expectations are needed. The National Immigration Administration offers a shortcut to increase population by introducing high-caliber talent from overseas.
About the interviewee
Yuan Xin is professor of demography at the Population and Development Research Institute at the School of Economics of Nankai University in Tianjin. He is director of the university's Aging Development Strategic Research Center and director of the aging society governance strategic research base of the China National Committee on Aging.
Yuan has 39 years of experience studying and teaching population science, with a focus on population economics, policies, sustainable development and an aging society. He joined in key national research projects to tackle issues such as confronting the aging population, long-term planning for age-related industries and adjustment of family planning policies.
He joined more than 100 national, provincial and international projects. He has published 30 books and more than 200 essays, and has received multiple awards for his research in the social sciences.
If you have any problems with this article, please contact us at app@chinadaily.com.cn and we'll immediately get back to you.
